Survivor's IQ drops, my stock rises

First things first: Jeff Probst really needs to ease up on his personal commentary. We get it - you are the face of the show; however, don't talk to people like they've never seen the show and let them make their own mistakes. It's much more fun to watch without Probst yelling at the newbies' lack of game play. If this continues I may be joining Christy Smith's viewing parties for the hearing impaired - it'd be a nice break.

This season I've joined a fantasy league, something I've always wanted to do but no one has ever created one. Thanks Amy for setting this up because I think I'm already winning! Before announcing my picks, my criteria was guessing who would have the best longevity and screen time. Two of the three people were in my top 5, so I lucked out that my opinion differs from others:

J'Tia, 31, Nuclear Engineer, "Brain"

Brice, 27, Social Worker, "Beauty"

Tony, 39, Police Officer, "Brawn"

Boy did I luck out? My first instincts of J'Tia was she would be level-headed and on-the-ball, but that went right out the window when she demanded the shelter to be built a specific way. I think the label of "brains" went straight to her and all Luzon's heads, which was evident in the first challenge. 

SIDE NOTE: the labels of brain, brawn and beauty are bound to go to someone's head. Especially if that person believes that's the most valuable thing in their arsenal. In my humble opinion as Facebook Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains champion, book smarts are useless on Survivor unless you're Yau-Man Chan and can apply them to opening up boxes. Knowing I was a villain after playing FB Survivor a few times, I couldn't let that run my game and think I was able to play slightly more honourable than in previous games (even if I did vote out my own brother).

Thank you, J'Tia, for delivering three memorable moments in the first two hours of Survivor: Cagayan. My prediction for her is not to win, but to grow from her blunders like Holly Hoffman did in Nicaragua (i.e. filling Dan's shoes with sand and throwing them into the ocean). She may also become NaOnka and succumb to the pressure of the game, quitting abruptly mid-season.

Enough about my dream girl. Brice - you've already stepped up as the confident gay man who can control the girls. Your "wing man" status is still to be seen, because I think the hormones radiating from Jeremiah and Morgan will dictate their alliance. If the beauties ban together to vote out Jefra first, Brice will control the tribe. This could be a major Chapera or Tandang situation where they control the events of the game and take the win. I think the beauties have the best shot of winning the whole bag of rice, so long as no one dumps out early (don't get the reference? Watch the show!)

Tony, you big, bruiting buffoon. To say you're devious like Russell Hantz (I still hate him) and slick like Boston Rob (I still love him and Amber), you need to do more than find the idol. Get people on your side or you'll be gone. Cliff's basketball history makes him polarizing, so people will gravitate to him (knowing about science, does that make me a brain?). Russell and Rob were able to become the polarizing people without being the target, so Tony needs to make himself be known just as that. If so, he'll be in for a longer haul.

After the first episode my favourite person is Tasha. She outwardly spoke about her want to strategize and play the game, and I love those players who want to be sneaky. Out of my three picks, Brice has the best shot of making it to the finals, "wing man" status pending. I hope he does - I need the points.